February CPI inflation data will be released Tuesday (08:30 ET). Standard Chartered research notes:
- In line with the consensus, we think headline prices were up 0.2% m/m, from -0.7% prior, driven by higher gasoline prices.
- We think core CPI inflation was up 0.1% m/m (1.6% y/y), after 0.2% in January.
- This should mean that core PCE inflation – the Fed’s reference – was also up 0.1% m/m, a still-tepid rate supporting the Fed’s wait-and-see stance.
- The March preliminary Markit PMI index (09:45 ET) is seen as less important than the ISM index, but still provides valuable information on business sentiment, in our view.
- Echoing recent softer regional surveys (e.g., Empire and Philly Fed indices), we expect a slight erosion from February’s 55.1.
- February new home sales (10:00 ET) were likely hit by the poor weather in line with recent housing data.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com