The near term outlook for USDCAD stays bearish as long as prices stay below the daily Ichimoku cloud. A top has been formed at the March 18 high of 1.2834 as prices have been falling since then to touch a low of 1.1919 on Friday.
The pair has retraced 38.2% of the upleg from 1.0619(July 2014 low) to 1.2834 (March 2015 high) and prices have been testing this Fibonacci level of 1.1987.
The tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned and the RSI is below 50, indicating that downside bias remains. The 50% Fibonacci at 1.1727 is the next target to the downside and below this would likely shift the long term outlook that was bullish from July 2014.
To the upside we see immediate resistance at the May 1st high of 1.2204. Breaking above this would open the way to the 23.6% Fibonacci at 1.2313.