USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range as markets await 1800 GMT Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement: the Fed is expected to announce the end of its monthly bond-buying program. Market participants will be closely watching the outlook for short-term interest rates which are expected to be raised in the second half of 2015. USD/JPY is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid the positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 10.29% to 14.39; S&P 500 rose 1.19% to close at 1,985.05 overnight) on stronger-than-expected rise in U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index to 94.5 in October–its highest level since 2007–(versus forecast 87.9) from a revised 89.0 in September (first reported as 86.0) and a jump in Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index to 20 in October from 14 in September. The data overshadowed a surprise 1.3% on-month drop in U.S. September durable goods orders (versus forecast +0.7%) and a smaller-than-expected 5.6% yearly rise in S&P / Case-Shiller 20-city home price index in August (versus forecast +5.7% and July’s +6.7%). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.299% versus 2.257% late Monday; demand from Japan’s importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan’s exporter sales and caution before Fed’s interest rate decision.
Daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is bullish, MACD histogram bars are turned positive, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 108.35 and the second target at 108.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 107.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 107.05. The pivot point is at 107.75.
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