USD/JPY is expected to consolidate. Liquidity was thin in Asia on Monday as financial markets in Japan were shut for a public holiday. USD/JPY is undermined by the Japan’s finance minister Aso’s remark on Friday that the recent fall in yen had been too fast. USD/JPY is also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.315% versus 2.333% late Thursday), buy-yen orders from Japan’s exporters. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the sell-yen orders from Japan’s importers, Bank of Japan’s large-scale easing policy and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 88.41 versus 87.67 early Friday) on divergent Federal Reserve’s monetary policy versus that of other major central banks and stronger-than-expected rise in Kansas City Fed manufacturing production index to 9 in November from 3 in October (versus forecast of 5), yen-funded carry trades amid the positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 5.01% to 12.9; S&P 500 hit all-time high 2,071.46 Friday before closing up 0.52% at 2,063.5) after China’s central bank cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years and the European Central Bank’s president reiterated that the ECB was ready to expand its stimulus program.
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119 and the second target at 119.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.75. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 116.35. The pivot point is at 117.40.
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