USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting a seven-year high 118.98 on Thursday. It is supported by the weak yen sentiment on Bank of Japan’s large-scale easing policy and positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 2.72% to 13.58; S&P 500 rose 0.20% to post record-high close of 2,052.75 overnight) after surprise surge in Philadelphia Fed business index to 40.8 in November–the highest since December 1993–from 20.7 in October (versus forecast for drop to 18.0), unexpected 1.5% increase in U.S. October existing home sales (versus forecast for 0.1% decrease), stronger-than-expected 0.9% rise in Conference Board U.S. Leading Economic Index to 105.2 in October (versus forecast +0.6%). USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan’s importers. But the USD sentiment is tempered by the more-than-expected 291,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Nov. 15 (versus forecast 283,000), weaker-than-expected Markit flash U.S. November manufacturing PMI of 54.7, the lowest in 10 months (versus forecast 56.0). USD/JPY upside is limited by Japan’s export sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.338% versus 2.357% late Wednesday) despite U.S. October CPI coming in unchanged (versus forecast -0.1%); profit-taking on short-yen positions ahead of the long weekend in Japan (financial markets in Japan are shut Monday for a public holiday). Data focus: 1600 GMT U.S. November Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index.
Daily chart still is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 118.40 and the second target at 119. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.75. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 116.35. The pivot point is at 117.40.
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