USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a two-week high 120.19 this morning. Liquidity is thin as financial markets in Japan are shut Tuesday for a public holiday and global trading volumes have shrunk ahead of the Christmas holiday period. USD/JPY is supported by a smaller safe-haven appeal of the yen and yen-funded carry trades as positive risk sentiment prevails (VIX fear gauge eased 7.52% to 15.25, S&P 500 closed up 0.38% at 2,078.54 overnight) following last week’s Federal Reserve message expressing confidence in the U.S. economy but pledging to be “patient” on raising interest rates. USD/JPY is also supported by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit eight-and-a-half year high 89.794 overnight; last 89.742 versus 89.650 early Monday) as expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates sooner than other central banks and rise in Chicago Fed National Activity Index to +0.73 in November from +0.31 in October overshadowed a bigger-than-expected 6.1% drop in U.S. November existing-home sales (versus forecast -1.1%); sell-yen orders from Japan’s importers as well as Bank of Japan’s large-scale monetary easing policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the buy-yen orders from Japan’s exporters. Slew of U.S.
Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish but stochastics bullish, five-day moving average rising above 15-day moving average, bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit Monday.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120.80 and the second target at 121.20. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.10. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 118.40. The pivot point is at 119.65.
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