USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting an eight-day high 119.66 this morning. Trading volumes are light as many market participants move to sidelines ahead of Christmas and New Year holidays. USD/JPY is supported by the yen-funded carry trades as positive risk sentiment prevailed (VIX fear gauge eased 1.9% to 16.49, S&P 500 closed up 0.46% at 2,070.65 on Friday) after the Federal Reserve System on Wednesday expressed confidence in the U.S. economy but pledged to be “patient” on raising interest rates. USD/JPY is also supported by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit eight-and-a-half-year high 89.654 on Friday, last 89.650 versus 89.210 on early Friday) amid expectations that the U.S. economy would outperform other major economies and that the Fed would raise interest rates sooner than other central banks, the demand from Japan’s importers and the Bank of Japan’s large-scale monetary easing policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese export sales and positions adjustment ahead of Japan’s public holiday on Tuesday.
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is in bullish mode.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120.25 and the second target at 120.80. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 117.75. The pivot point is at 118.35.
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