USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a one-month low of 115.56 on Tuesday as the market awaits the Federal Reserve interest rate decision ar 19:00 GMT: Fed could drop its pledge to hold rates steady for a “considerable time” taking a step towards raising short-term U.S. interest rates in the middle of the next year. USD/JPY is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 15.43% to 23.57, S&P 500 closed 0.85% lower at 1,972.74 overnight) as fears mount over the Russian economic collapse and its contagion on emerging markets. At the same time, a lower forecast of China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI (49.5) in December and drop in oil prices to a five-and-a-half-year lows on Tuesday – Nymex crude hit $53.60/bbl, its cheapest figure since May 6, 2009 – stoke concerns over slowing global economy. USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese export sales, weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 87.94 versus 88.43 on early Tuesday), 1.6% on month drop in the U.S. Housing starts in November (versus forecast +2.9%), 5.2% decrease in the U.S. building permits (versus forecast -0.5%), Markit flash U.S. December manufacturing PMI of 53.7 (versus forecast 56.0) and by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.064% versus 2.116% on late Monday). But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan’s import, the Bank of Japan’s large-scale monetary easing policy and caution ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary decision.
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 118.40 and the second target at 119.10. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 115.50. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 114.90. The pivot point is at 116.25.
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