USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with risks skewed lower. It is undermined by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.258% versus 2.308% late Monday), softer dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 87.89 versus 88.15 early Tuesday) as surprise fall in Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence index to 88.7 in November from October’s 94.5 (versus forecast for rise to 96.8) and big drop in Richmond Fed manufacturing index to 4 in November from 20 in October offset unexpected upward revision in U.S. 3Q GDP to 3.9% from preliminary reading of 3.5% (versus forecast 3.3%). USD/JPY is also weighed by Japan’s export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan’s importers and Bank of Japan’s large-scale easing policy.
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 118.60. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 119. The pivot point stands at 118.25. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 117.40 and the second target at 117.
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