In the week ending 21 March, the advanced figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 282,000, 9,000 up from the previous week’s unrevised level of 291,000. The 4-week moving average was 297,000, 7,750 up from the previous week’s unrevised average of 304,750. The USD index rebounds from a 2-week low. Today, traders eye on the US GDP q/q. We are expecting 2.4% uptick in the GDP.
Prices have been hovering at 50Dsma for 3 consecutive days. At yesterday’s session, the pair fell below 50Dsma again and closed below that level. The pair has been making lower tops for 3 days in a row. It’s not a good sign for the near term. This view is not valid in case the price gets above 1.2550. Bulls might regain the strength in case the price closes above 1.2600. The pair prepared strong support base between 1.2350 and 1.2300 at 200MSMA. Until prices close above 1.2300, buying on dips still remains in play. Weekly resistance is found at 1.2575 and intraday resistance is seen at 1.2550. We expect an intraday mild reversal above 1.2500 towards 1.2550, 1.2575, and 1.2600. The near-term picture favors bears. We have been expecting the price to correct towards 1.2400 or 1.2370. However, it formed a low at 1.2410. From there, the pair changes its direction. Until the price closes below 1.2550, selling on rise is likely to be preferable. We are bullish in a longer term, but the near-term outlook favors mild-correction. Intraday support is found at 1.2400 and 1.2375. For an intraday session
Trade: Buying with sl 1.2460
The pair fell below 50Dsma and managed to closed above 100Dsma. But it was unable to close above 50Dsma. Today, the pair managed to stay above 50Dsma at the Asian session. Japanese economic data were released. The CPI was printed close to deflation level. Retail sales gave thumbs up. Consumption was up from the previous levels. Ahead of GDP data from the US, the pair is trading with a positive bias. Intraday support is likely to be found at 119.00. Resistance is seen at 119.45 and 119.80. The support zone is likely to be set around 119.18, 118.75, and 117.50. Only 117.50 was left. A daily close below 117.50 leads to another leg down towards 116.00 and 115.00. Bulls are safe until the price closes above 117.50 100Dema.
Trade:Positional buying with sl 117.50
Intraday- buying above 119.50 with targets 119.80, 120.00 and 120.15.
The key level for bulls to close above to take charge: USD/CAD at 1.2540, USD/JPY at 119.50, USD/CHF at 0.9675.
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